To add some perspective on your original post mountain pass...

To add some perspective on your original post mountain pass which started to implement downstream processing in 2021 are still exporting majority of their ore to china , they are producing some products in house but still upscaling. it's recommend to read their last reports to gain some insight about time lags for down stream processing development.

this reiterates that next 4 years will be tough for rare earth explorers trying to get a mine going in a depressed price scenario.

going back to tariffs though, when Chinese EVs are hit with tariffs in the US, the natural repercussion is china will place in rare earth quotas restricting supply, there is no way in next 4 years western countries will make up that short fall. Essentially knee capping the industry. Add in a pro oil , anti climate US president to that mix and I don't see any federal subsidy towards green energy benifits. Maybe state's like California will step up as they have largest percentage of EVs sales in america. ( Incidentally mountain pass mine is located there and already received funding by DOD . )

if western countries want to restrict China's hold over the market without the repercussion of market distortion which over longer terms isn't sustainable with tariffs or subsidy then putting in origin of supply environmental standards is the only way to level up the field, in situ clay leaching is cheap but environmentally destructive. China is already building car plants in countries to reduce tariffs effects so their are work arounds for ev manufacturers in china.

will peak get going next year with a commitment to the FID, who knows , rare earth explorers have just gotten allot more risky . I can only take a pragmatic outlook that at least we have potential to reduce opex to a point we can make it feasible at the ores low prices , if shenghe does just sit on this at their convenience then I don't see options anyway because we won't be feasible without their input. .