SPR (ASX) Ann: Trading Halt

Originally posted by speculator101 ↑

Firstly, that was kind of you taking the SPR team an Xmas cake, very thoughtful.

A shame the article you provide is less.... festive As I am not super keen on RMS taking SPR out. While I greatly respect SL, I do feel RMS has a strong chance at acquiring SPR. I guess my view is, the MD of RMS has never failed to acquire a company RMS have taken a position in, and I doubt he would want to let arguably, the best asset he is likely to see in his career escape him. RMS is going to be booking some incredible FCF in the coming quarters. My humble prediction is that RMS will replicate the offer to what WGX offered Karora shareholders (49.9% of a merged entity with a nice cash addition). Not in any way saying that RMS are guaranteed to succeed, just that I would prefer SL to be keeping the drawbridge up. For what it's worth, I have no issue with RMS, and would be comfortable enough holding their script. Also... RMS are likely to do well no-matter what happens, sort of like GOR and their DEG holdings.... Finally... RMS tipping in and more, shows just how much the like the NN/PP.... etc assets. They are not buying anything else in W.A, just SPR......

As perhaps many shareholders (I am thinking more the insto's, which hold a huge amount of SPR, I know the retail holders are the likely true 'Spartans!' and will quite literally 'hold'), would prefer roll over relief and a nice premium to waiting over the long term (i.e. a 50% premium to today's share price of $1.98 would undoubtably tempt them). If a sperate offer came from an overseas or non-ASX listed company, no tax relief.... no script, may be a harder sell. Off topic - but still cannot believe EMR never had a crack at SPR (best in the business along side CMM).

In any case, hopefully the U/G drilling program quickly proves SL correct and they find so much gold that NST have to put DEG and Hemi on the shelf to acquire SPR!

On other matters, MoM team had an interesting discussion on SPR vs DEG. I respect that Matty had a crack (Trav - I know you were biting your tongue!), but.... I do think it required a bit more, ah... time to ponder the figures they used for their comparisons. Plus, I found it a bit challenging to see them view SPR as barely getting up to 200k p.a by 2027..... I mean, that is 3 years from now! The plant is built... the U/G drive is going in etc etc.
I also struggled with his focus on the 2g/t cuttoff and how the reserves will be sub 5g/t. I think he is mixing up Four Pillars, West Winds and Sly Fox with NN & PP. Any mining study and LOM plan will front load production... WAFs Sanbrado mine (startup and success) is an excellent example.

Cheers @calmbeforestorm for that regarding Nic's thoughts on 5m oz (and higher). If.... if I dare to dream and somehow SPR are still in charge of their own destiny and they hit 10m oz by.... 2027, SPR could likely rival or even outdo DEG in terms of market cap, as the one thing that the MoM team did not focus heavily on was margin and... the premium paid by the market for such premium margins. There is a reason why CMM sits at a similar market cap to WGX (CMM produces 120k p.a, WGX produce over 400k p.a).

Anyway... everything above is purely for entertainment purposes and I am just feeling a little lucky to have hitched a ride with the right team and the right assets (my first was GIR, second was DEG).

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Good morning Speculator and your posts are always thought provoking.

On the subject of the acquisitive eye of the Ramelius;
I think a $220 million cap raise at $1.32 a share equals 166 million new shares (someone else truly needs to confirm this as, even when I ask google, I can get numbers wrong)
…And on participation in this raise, the Ramelius holding will be 19.9%?
They had 17.89% as of July 1 [notice] which means they could only acquire about 1% of new total shares on issue (around 1.28 billion after raise?) without setting off takeover ructions
………. So, if they have the cash to buy (‘only’~$1.28m?) why would they NOT jump into this excellently priced offer?
-Regardless of whether the acquisitive eye will be hungry again later?

So despite that the increase has increased media and HC speculation on Ramelius takeover I am wondering (until someone corrects my maths) if anyone else large has seized the bulk of this opportunity?

And the only thing I wanted to add was that, when I asked about timing on the mill starting up again (Nick said something like ‘ah the gold bars question!’ ) they said they estimated bringing it all together would take about 18 months.
I queried; did that mean they felt they would be starting production around EOFY ‘26 and they thought a bit and nodded.
I don’t know how that fits in with the question of 200 kilos of gold a year in 2027 (which, under that 18 month scenario, would be first FY of production?) but I thought I’d add those comments .
Perhaps someone going to the Melbourne event can clarify?

cheers