GLN galan lithium limited

You clearly didn't read my post to Egeria above before you...

  1. 557 Posts.
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    You clearly didn't read my post to Egeria above before you decided to tag me in your post, I will say it again so it is clear:

    I am referring to the entire greenbushes operation which includes the investment in the lithium hydroxide refinery, it is a vertically integrated business/model and produced a net overall loss as of 31 December 2024 as per IGO reports on a combined basis (you can’t consider the mine as a standalone when they invested billions of dollars into the lithium refinery to treat predominately the ore from greenbushes mine itself). See comments right down below direct from IGO regarding greenbushes/refinery business and what their overall net position is (mine + refinery is their business a vertical integrated model).

    @triage - a respected poster wasn't aware of Arcadium's (owned by Rio) dec 24 overall net loss position which includes brine operations in Argentina (salar del Hombre and olaroz - selling lithium carbonate - see snippets below regarding their deposit and my post above where I provide all information supplied by the company itself.

    Salar Del Hombre MuertoThe resource has a very high-grade lithium brine with historical production >740 mg/L (605ppm) and very low variability. It is also very large, covering roughly 600 square kilometers (in its entirety) with depths potentially extending to 900+ meters below ground surface. Current production does not extend below 40m and inferred resource only reaches 200m, easily supporting additional expansion.

    Galan's deposit is more comparable to Arcadium lithium's tenements mentioned above (albeit I appreciate all deposits are not the same but you still need to compare actual brine companies in production - this is more real than using baseless studies). Arcadium still made an overall net loss due to current lithium pricing even though their scale of production is significantly more than Galan's proposed 5kt per annum operation (only talking about stage 1 - nothing else here). Hence why I don't believe Galan's stage 1 production will be profitable (based on current pricing and only 5kt per annum production quota). I have stated if lithium prices increase, then clearly this will be beneficial for all companies not just Galan and will help with margins. I am merely going off spot prices (what we know today). If you go off forecasting, then clearly Galan will be profitable over the long term but forecasting is considerable higher than where we are at today and possibly for the next 12 months where Galan intends to be producing 5000kt so hence my comments only apply in the short term which is a critical time for Galan.

    You wanted to tag me in the below so I have responded for the benefit of all investors (potential and current holders):

    Your commentary re greenbushes :

    ...Costs, $300 a ton, so we're sort of in line there, which is great to see... (note: 300 AUD)...

    The margin is fantastic. Despite this being a weak point in the cycle for lithium, 68% pretty impressive EBITDA and just shows you how unparalleled this asset is. It's an amazing ore body and lots more potential that we're working through on that...

    My reply below:

    1) If you think Galan is going to have a cost to produce of $300 a ton - 'so we are sort of in line there', you couldn't be more incorrect and are misleading investors. Galan is going to produce 5000 tonnes per annum based on stage 1 forecast and will not even come close to $300 a ton. Greenbushes produces 400,000 tonnes per quarter. If you read any of my posts you would realise they have a lower cost to produce due to their economies of scale, they would have the lowest cost per unit of production out of all lithium deposits because of their grade and scale. Galan will not come close to this figure and by you indicating that 'we are sort of in line there', you clearly have no idea.

    2) 'I agree with the criticism of basing valuation solely on EBITDA', yet you then proceed to ramble on about greenbushes having EBITDA fantasic margins, come back to me with actual GAAP net profit/loss figures factoring in capex maintenance requirements as per my comments in a previous post which I won't mention again as you get the point. As mentioned before, the entire business is (mining from greenbuses + refining the ore from greenbushes to lithium hydroxide) which produced a loss as of 31 Dec 2024.

    I have openly stated that if lithium prices increases and come close to what is being forecasted over the long term that Galan due to its grade and size of the deposit (assuming it ramps up production capacity to respectable levels - completes its capex stages) then it will be profitable. I have nothing against Galan or the project itself, all my comments specifically relate to stage 1 forecast and where lithium prices are at today (assuming these prices are here to stay for at least the next 12 months), I am forecasting a loss but that isn't a knock on Galan as I have openly said, it is a tough lithium operating environment where not even Arcadium who have large brine projects are currently producing profits - same with a lot of lithium companies (core lithium, pilbara minerals, the list goes on. Investors here seem to keep taking every little snippet I say and taking it out of context. I can't make myself any more clear and are not going to bother responding any further.

    Lithium Business:

    • The Group’s Lithium Business reported a share of net loss of $602.2M from the lithium joint venture,
    Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia Pty Ltd (TLEA), compared with $495.2M profit in the prior period.
    The results were impacted by the impairment recognised on the Kwinana Lithium Refinery assets,
    lower spodumene sales revenue resulting from lower realised prices at Greenbushes, unrealised
    foreign exchange losses associated with the revaluation of USD denominated debt, and higher
    income tax expense following the derecognition of deferred tax assets.

    The Group’s share of loss from TLEA includes an impairment charge of $524.6M (IGO 49% share)
    against the assets of the Kwinana Lithium Refinery, which reflects the impact of falling lithium
    hydroxide prices, the ongoing operational challenges relating to the ramp up of Lithium Hydroxide
    Plant 1 (LHP1), and the decision by TLEA shareholders to cease all works on LHP2.

    The lithium sent to Kwinana is primarily spodumene concentrate from the Greenbushes mine, which is then processed into lithium hydroxide at the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery.
    Last edited by ChasingProfits: 14/04/25
 
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