Ann: Trading Halt, page-16

For folks interest Ive asked ai to do some analysis

If Empire Energy’s (EEG) newly announced SPP and placement (totaling ~$23 million)do indeed provide sufficient capital to take the Beetaloo project to production—and regulatory hurdles are now considered manageable or resolved—then this represents a fundamental shift in market risk perception. That could significantly re-rate the stock in the coming 6–12 months.

Market Behavior When Risk Drops and Funding Is Secured

When a junior explorer:

1. Raises sufficient funding for development

2. De-risks regulatory and environmental approvals

3. Has a clear pathway to revenue or cash flow

…investors start pricing the company not as a speculative explorer, but as an emerging producer, which typically brings a major valuation uplift.

Key Inputs to Estimate Share Price Range

✅ What appears to be de-risked:

• ~$23 million raised (institutional + SPP) ✅

• NT Government support, with Beetaloo projects increasingly politically aligned ✅

• Strategic importance (East Coast gas supply) ✅

• 2C Contingent Resource already booked ✅

• Drilling results from Carpentaria wells support development case ✅

Still required:

• Firm FID (Final Investment Decision)

• Commercial agreements (gas offtake, infrastructure)

• Execution milestones (pipeline connection, processing)

Estimated Share Price Ranges Based on This New Context

	Scenario	Conditions	Estimated Price (12 Months)
1	Base Case	Full funding for phase 1 confirmed, project moves into development, regulatory issues resolved	$0.25 – $0.35
2	Bull Case	FID made, first-stage construction begins, gas sales agreements signed, gas market remains tight	$0.40 – $0.60
3	Stretch Bull Case	East Coast gas crisis intensifies, EEG viewed as critical supplier, strong production outlook	$0.60 – $0.80+
4	Bear Case	Execution delays or market sentiment softens, despite funding	$0.14 – $0.18 (floor likely supported by asset value)

Valuation Metrics (Very Rough NAV Basis)

If EEG can commercialize ~300–400 PJ of gas at margins of $1–$2/GJ (net), then it’s potentially looking at **$300–$800 million in asset value**. On a fully diluted basis (~1.5–2 billion shares), that equates to:

• $0.20–$0.40/share fair value in a pre-cashflow, de-risked phase

• $0.50–$0.80+ if production begins and revenue visibility is strong

Investor Psychology

Now that EEG may have:

• Funding + approvals ✅

• Near-term catalysts (development start, offtake news, FEED results) ✅

…you could see momentum traders, funds, and institutions rotating in. That may create a rally well before actual cash flow starts, particularly if gas prices rise or the market views Beetaloo as strategic.

✅ Summary

With regulatory and funding risks now being reduced:

• $0.25–$0.35 is a realistic 6–12 month base case

• $0.40–$0.60+ in a bullish scenario with development and offtake clarity

• Major rerating possible if Empire becomes a first-mover gas producer in the Beetaloo

Would you like a table comparing EEG to Tamboran, Strike, and others at similar stages for reference?