Based on current fundamentals, project timelines, and comparable...

Based on current fundamentals, project timelines, and comparable energy sector dynamics, here’s a 12-month share price projection for Tamboran Resources (TBN) vs Empire Energy (EEG) — assuming moderate success for both in progressing toward early production and securing infrastructure/GSA deals.

12-Month Price Projections (May 2025 – May 2026)

	Company	Base Case (most likely)	Bull Case (strong success)	Bear Case (delays/failures)
1	Tamboran (TBN)	$0.22 – $0.28	$0.35 – $0.45	$0.10 – $0.15
2	Empire Energy (EEG)	$0.18 – $0.25	$0.30 – $0.40	$0.08 – $0.12

Key Factors Behind the Forecasts

Tamboran (TBN)

• Strengths:

  • Deep-pocketed U.S. investors (Bryan Sheffield, Helmerich & Payne)

  • Strong infrastructure partnerships (APA, Jemena)

  • More tenements and gas MoUs in place

• Catalysts:

  • Binding gas sales agreements

  • Infrastructure or pipeline final investment decision (FID)

  • Pilot production or export MoU (e.g. NT mini-LNG or east coast)

• Risks:

  • Capital-intensive plans

  • Needs large-scale approvals and possible community/environmental opposition

Empire Energy (EEG)

• Strengths:

  • Smaller, focused footprint (EP187) = more agile execution

  • Clear plan to use recent SPP/placement funds to advance to production

  • Positive relationship with NT government

• Catalysts:

  • Progressing toward first gas production

  • Pipeline or grid connection announcement

  • Partnering with infrastructure or midstream company

• Risks:

  • Less institutional backing than TBN

  • More dependent on success from a single asset

Valuation Upside Comparison (Simplified)

	Metric	Tamboran (TBN)	Empire (EEG)
1	Current Price (approx)	$0.15–$0.17	$0.13–$0.14
2	Potential Upside (Base → Bull)	+30% to +160%	+40% to +180%
3	Potential Downside (Bear case)	–30% to –40%	–25% to –40%

Conclusion

• TBN is the more institutionally backed, capital-rich play — better for investors wanting scalability and long-term gas exposure.

• EEG is more of an agile, potentially faster-moving underdog — with more torque (price leverage) if a few big news pieces land in the next 6–12 months.

• If both companies reach early production milestones and announce gas deals, EEG may actually have more percentage upside from a lower base.