ADT adriatic metals plc

0.37%

$5.43

Ann: Trading Halt, page-24

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seventhseal

1,490 Posts.

527

13/06/25

16:27

Post #: 79426182

Originally posted by galvanise: ↑

Look-back window VWAP (AUD) Date span used
20 trading days ≈ A$ 4.78 15 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025
30 trading days ≈ A$ 4.49 01 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025

Valuation multiple on after-tax NPV (US $1.61 bn) Equity value (US $ bn)* A$/share** Premium to last close (A$5.00)
0.8 × (typical low-end P/NAV for developers) 1.11 A$4.95 ~-1 %
1.0 × (par to NPV – common “full” bid) 1.42 A$6.4 ≈ +27 %
1.1 × (aggressive/competitive) 1.59 A$7.1 ≈ +42 %
1.2 × (scarce, hotly-contested asset) 1.77 A$7.8 ≈ +56 %
* Equity value = Enterprise value minus estimated net debt (~A$275 m)
** Using 345.3 m shares on issue (stockanalysis.com) and a 2025 average FX of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD (exchange-rates.org).
Why ~A$6–7 per share looks most likely
Dundee’s own study pegs Vareš at US $1.61 bn NPV (5 % real, after-tax). Paying right around 1.0 × NPV for an asset that is already in ramp-up is consistent with recent precious-metal M&A, which tends to fall in the 0.9–1.1 × P/NAV band for near-production projects.
Net debt adjustment: ADT carries ~A$275 m net debt (A$308 m debt – A$33 m cash). Taking that on means the equity cheque can be ~US $180 m smaller than the headline enterprise value.
Shares outstanding: 345 m CDIs translate every A$100 m of equity value into ~A$0.29 per share.
Usual takeover premia: Precious-metal developers in Australia/Canada have seen 25–40 % premia to the undisturbed price. ADT last traded at A$5.00, so an offer in the A$6.30–7.10 range slots neatly into that band.
Strategic fit & competition: Dundee Precious Metals has the balance-sheet capacity but faces few obvious competing bidders; that argues for paying about par to NPV, not far above it.
Putting it together
Base-case bid: ≈ A$6.40 per share (cash and/or DPM scrip), implying enterprise value ≈ NPV (1.0 ×).
Stretch case (if a rival emerges or board resistance): up to A$7.10.
Low-ball unlikely: anything under ~A$5.50 would value ADT below 0.9 × NPV and below recent peer deals, so the board would likely reject it.
Bottom line: Expect Dundee to pitch the initial offer around A$6½ per ADT CDI, with scope to creep toward A$7 if a bidding war or hard-ball negotiations develop.

Expand

(Do your own diligence; market conditions and deal structure could shift these numbers.)
Nice work!

Do you have any specific recent examples of the 0.9-1.1 P/NAV to reference?

ADT Price at posting: $5.00 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $5.43		Change -0.020(0.37%)		Mkt cap ! $1.647B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.40	$5.50	$5.31	$17.64M	3.248M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	37659	$5.43

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$5.44	9534	5

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	37659	5.430
1	10000	5.420
1	15000	5.410
1	2500	5.390
1	5000	5.340

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.440	8584	4
5.450	74936	5
5.460	1850	1
5.470	11078	2
5.480	10710	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 17/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

ADT (ASX) Chart

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Look-back window	VWAP (AUD)	Date span used
20 trading days	≈ A$ 4.78	15 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025
30 trading days	≈ A$ 4.49	01 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025

Valuation multiple on after-tax NPV (US $1.61 bn)	Equity value (US $ bn)*	A$/share**	Premium to last close (A$5.00)
0.8 × (typical low-end P/NAV for developers)	1.11	A$4.95	~-1 %
1.0 × (par to NPV – common “full” bid)	1.42	A$6.4	≈ +27 %
1.1 × (aggressive/competitive)	1.59	A$7.1	≈ +42 %
1.2 × (scarce, hotly-contested asset)	1.77	A$7.8	≈ +56 %

Ann: Trading Halt, page-24

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