No need to sell me on the lithium story as you know butcherboy, but what I was (still am) looking for are the cost factors in the opex for carbonate production. I noticed an NPV calculation in there - would love to know what they're basing that on.
They are very likely going to be a high cost producer but its critical to know how high their costs are and where they will fit in the field. I assume they are higher cost than Tallison and the brine producers - but are they lower cost than the Chinese spodumene outfits?
At current levels 20,000 tpa is a big slice of global production - it may not be so in five years time, but is it sensible to go in and try to take market share from the low cost producers before that demand materializes? With ORE we know that they can produce at a similarly low cost to the big producers so there is little risk of them being squeezed out of the market if the lower cost producers ramp up production. With GXY its more a matter of feeding on any crumbs dropped from the table - which may provide quite a nourishing meal in future, but leaves them at risk of starving to death in the meantime.
As I said I'm very interested to see the opex and the assumptions behind it particularly regarding things like energy costs etc. If Capex is low there may be an interim role for them as obviously even the low cost producers are happy to see high prices and margins - but not at the expense of significant market share. Otherwise they just don't look like the next cab off the rank to me and may have to wait for hared evidence of demand (more detail on the supply agreements they have may also be helpful here).
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