If one takes the low end of that FY22 guidance range of A$4.4m...

If one takes the low end of that FY22 guidance range of A$4.4m EBITDA and applies an 8x multiple, one arrives at a short-term fair value target of A$35.2m (MC). Considering there are 361m shares on issue, that equates to a share price target of 9.75c (and up to 10.6c at the high end of the FY22 guidance range). If one takes a multi-year view that earnings will increase, driven by Vodafone Global, that SP target rises substantially. Thus, on the surface, CCG certainly does look cheap at the current price, particularly after today's fall.

However, the above back of the envelope exercise relies on the assumption that the CCG business is still in a strong competitive position. I think it would be helpful to get a view of why a key global wholesale client is reducing its spending on consumer services. If we can regain some confidence that this is an external client-specific issue and not an internal CCG service-specific issue (i.e. sub-par service or a shift to a competing service), then the market can retain some confidence that spending per customer should hold moving forward and that CCG is poised to deliver on earnings growth. I'm changing my sentiment to hold for the time being until I can regain some confidence in the competitive position of CCG, upon which I may accumulate, should findings be favourable (the reverse also holds true).