Still looks substantially optimistic to me.

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MarsC

4,254 Posts.

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23/06/22

12:16

Post #: 62158723
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Originally posted by PortfolioPlus: ↑

Sure Adam, but firstly all this is subjective as you well know and made more complicated by different accounting terminologies, particularly what is 'underlying' and how does it vary from 'statutory'.
Throw in IGL's FY 21 results which had a combination of continuing and discontinued businesses and so it was a 70% improvement of FY21 results of what.
Quickly I took the stated FY21 EPS of the 'continuing businesses' as stated in the AR of 17c x by the stated uplift of 70% to get eps of 29c and 65% of that as a dividend = 18c
And then it was off to see Simon & Garfunkel and a night away with the bride of 48 years and not a second thought about IGL or the market in general.
In re-looking at it this morning with sodden head, I may have been a bit optimistic, but not by much and certainly not enough to turn this company from a 'good thing' into an 'also ran'.
Let's look at the dividend itself. 8.5c is already locked in as the interim divvy.
A Board intent on maintaining shareholder support as a reliable dividend payer (which it can because it is a good producer of cash) might look to maintain that as the final, which means 17c is a definite possibility for FY22.
When one follows the cash in 2HFY22, they might elect to be NOT so generous as net debt has actually gone backwards. It was $78.7m at December and now is forecast to be $95m to $100m, courtesy of larger paper stock holdings etc.
So my new reality is that the dividend is likely to be circa 16c and on a grossed up value of around 13% it is one of the highest paying dividend companies in the 56 I follow.
So, I offer a mini 'mea culpa' and my rationale now explained.

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Still looks substantially optimistic to me.

IGL Price at posting: $1.74 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $2.06		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $317.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.08	$2.10	$2.05	$401.1K	193.1K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	2349	$2.06

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.08	20287	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	2349	2.060
2	3140	2.050
2	11875	2.040
1	20000	2.030
4	65569	2.020

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.080	20287	2
2.090	1056	1
2.100	6982	4
2.110	5392	1
2.120	9500	1

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Still looks substantially optimistic to me.

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Still looks substantially optimistic to me.

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