If one includes some allowance for inflation, at this very early stage with a quick, unlikely to be totally accurate back-of-the-envelope calculation, BGA is forecasting FY 23 EBITDA to drop - at worst - about 15 per cent.
Not great, but perhaps nowhere near what the doom-and-gloom merchants expected.
Recessions have multiple definitions and if we have one (or are already in one), you'd expect some softening in demand for food service (cafes and the likes), plus a drop in discretionary BGA ranged items such as flavoured milk and maybe even yoghurt and cheese.
However, there's not yet any great sign (given very low unemployment rates according to the ABS - Roy Morgan differs) of consumers closing their wallets and purses and turning off their smartphones re purchases.
Demand in Asia for dairy products is generally good, and BGA through Tatura Milk and other aspects of its business has a role to play.
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