Phantom, This exercise would be pretty esoteric given the...

Phantom,

This exercise would be pretty esoteric given the potential introduction of new products (Hernia & Breast Reco).

Lets just take a simplistic example. I havent checked that the numbers stated below are accurate BTW.

As someone below mentions the market for BTM is $1.5bn and we capture <1%. If we assume that we are the leaders in the market for this product would it be fair to assume 10% market share? The simple math on that says that is ~10x+ from our current revenue. The marketing in this sector is highly word of mouth and evidence-based rather than based on marketing plans and advertising. As we get more traction we are likely to get more business (especially if you believe the patient outcomes using our product are materially better) and the rate of uptake should increase.

Does this mean we could achieve 10% market share by Y3? Maybe unlikely. If you assume a 5% market share of a $1.8bn (1.5bn grown 20%, crude) market you are at $90m. That is about 62% growth per annum based on a starting Rev of $21m at 2020FY.

The above is pretty crude but hope it helps the thinking.