Adam, I largely agree with your figures and yes, my assessment...

Adam, I largely agree with your figures and yes, my assessment is ultra conservative.

I have a different opinion to you on (a) likely FY21 revenue and (b) margins obtained and (c) interest paid. Remember opinions are like back sides, we all have one, need one and are entitled to one!

Here's my rationale based upon the likely recovery after GFC:
Recovery did occur with a 12 to 18 month lag after GFC - but there was significant evidence of substituting cheaper brands..That said back then we had a semblance of a car manufacturing industry - today all sales are 'replaceables'.
Right now there is intense competition and the competition by the big boys is particularly fierce. Whilst NTD bill themselves as the largest independent tyre distributor, check the member list of the 30 members on the Australian Tyre Industry Council. NTD is a member but the rest are largely international tyre manufacturers with a significant retail/distributor base. Deep pockets there. I have no doubt that NTD will be a survivor whilst many smaller guys will go to the wall, but what negative impact on margins?
For these reasons (and the acquisition of low cost/low margin Tyres4U) i do not see NTD matching your revenue assumptions and i use a lower EBIT/Rev percentage than you. The EBIT/rev % in 2HFY20 was 3.94% down from 5.11% in 1hFY20 shows the intensity of competition and the impact of Covid on revenue. This slide will continue in both 1HFY21 and 2HFY21 IMO. Maybe a pickup into FY22.

Next point. The acquisition of Tyres4U was a massive financial challenge. They didn't get a standard vanilla type funding agreement because the bankers were leery of the NTD Balance Sheet strength. The best they could do is get a Bank overdraft of $5m, a term loan of $12.5m, trade finance of $37.5m. The latter is super costly and its no wonder the board have decided on no interim dividend because they have to get rid of a high cost funding source ASAP. Smart move.

I'd also suggest that they are doing everything in their power to turn inventory and surplus assets into cash. Again a smart move but it might be another reason why there is/will be pressure on margins. I suspect net interest paid will be a tad over $2m for FY21.

Bottom line: as a shareholder with a reasonable stake, I am happy to hold and am cheering on your assessment of FY21 eps of 8c

BTW, Interesting to note that two of three services I use have an understated assessment of the number of shares issued in NTD which makes their forward projections somewhat wrong. I make the shares issued 114,207,216. The FY20 AR does not mention total shares issued either.