Ann: Trading Update , page-20

Just out of curiosity - do the majority of the posters on these CCV threads actually analyse and value the company and take the future cash flows into account, making assumptions on margins, growth and reinvestment?

Or do they go from announcement to announcement as if each one is the only one to consider. Do they base their buy price only on when they feel it has fallen a substantial amount?
The later is a very dangerous approach as it can cause you to miss out, or, buy a falling knife that has no reason to stop falling.

I have modelled the financials and have had a good understanding of this business for the last 5 years.
My valuation is now closer to 1.15 and that is with 0% revenue growth and a decline in EBIT margin down to 15% for this reporting year. The following years I have assumed that growth will begin to improve again as normality returns to the lending side of the business and the new revenue recognition is smoothed out a little more.

Its frustrating to read some of the posts on here that call the end of the world for CCV when in reality they will be strengthening their positon over the next few years. But I guess - its time like these when others are fearful - that those with conviction and a true understanding of the strength of the business brand and model can take advantage.

As I have said before, the short termers are correct in their selling of CCV. But if you are a long term beleiver in CCV - what you need to consider is if they can continue to grow at 10-20% over the long term. I think this is going to be achieved and as such have no problems sleeping at night knowing that CCV is 10% of my portfolio.