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18/10/17
14:30
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Originally posted by Penny Pincher
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To be honest, I recently sold some shares from family accounts that I run (i.e. my mother and child). Given continued decline in the share price, I was almost tempted to buy back in as recently as yesterday. Hence my irritation about the slow disclosure - I only just dodged a bullet.
Also, regarding your earlier post that you believe "adjustments" are included in the $14m to $17m EBITDA guidance. I am happy to be corrected, but I am quite certain that they are not.
The key word here is "underlying". Companies always like to talk about "underlying" results - i.e. pre one-offs, pre store closure costs, pre restructuring costs. I usually do not like to think about motherhood statements such as "the first profit downgrade is never the last downgrade", but in this situation I am mindful of this possibility - like others have stated, this forecast is made prior to seeing how Christmas trading turns out.
My expectation is for an absolute shocker of a 1H'18 result.
However, I do not want to give the impression that I am in any way certain how this thing is going to play out. At the slightest whiff of a takeover or meaningful management/Board change, SFH could pop up 25%-50%.
So yes, according to Buffet - be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. Today, it seems that most investors - myself included - are fearful.
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Temptation is there but already holding too much ..hence fearful