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7.9¢ retail food group limited

Ann: Trading Update, page-19

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rizzla

2,631 Posts.

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19/12/17

10:32

Post #: 29730830
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Originally posted by DSD ↑

drop in reported earnings for IH18 is 34 % not 50%. Yr maths as bad as RFG's initial forecast.

Clearly RFG has changed its mind from the earnings forecast provided recently. 2H18 will be better and firm will wear significant costs early rather than attempt to spread them across 12 months. I suppose it looks better to franchisees who are struggling if firm's profits also drop but either way its shareholders who will wear it.

based on earlier forecasts i estimated 35.8c EPS and 26.5c div. Now reckon 30c (12+18) EPS and divs of 21.5c which equates to a 72% payout ratio.

Not all sections are underperforming and overseas expansion remains on track. Good to see more effort to cut corporate costs.

So if I'm correct and using yesterday's closing SP of $2.65 it gives a fy18 PE of 8.8 and div yield 8.1% (net) and 11.6% (gross). Still good but a big change from indications provided not long ago by CEO.

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i'm broadly in line with your forecasts, DSD.

and now that we're down at $1.40, that forward yield is still around 10% and earnings multiple way below 10x now.

plenty of buffer and plenty of upside. reminds me of when AVJ and BFG were trading in the low 50's!

RFG Price at posting: $2.44 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 7.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $196.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.9¢	8.5¢	7.9¢	$1.088M	13.42M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	188688	7.9¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.0¢	147781	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	188688	0.079
2	140000	0.078
1	104781	0.076
4	410500	0.075
3	340000	0.074

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.080	147781	1
0.082	130802	4
0.083	106488	3
0.084	486905	3
0.085	629735	7

Last trade - 16.10pm 14/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

RFG (ASX) Chart