Ann: Trading Update, page-2

So if debt finishes at 42.5mil this year and ebitda of 38.5mil

With ebitda by 2021 being guided to 7.5margin taking the declines in volume into account, the ebitda should be about 55mil
So 2020 ebitda might be 45mil

So in 2020 of the 45mil ebitda
7.5mil significant items
6.5mil capex
3mil interest

45-17 = 28mil fcf -8 for extra capex (to complete new machine initial guidance was 20mil spend)

So net debt could be 24mil. And ebitda of 45mil.
By that stage dividends or buy backs would be considered I think.
At 20c the ev:ebitda would be 124mil/45mil = 2.5.
Extrapolate one year further
2021 ebitda 55mil
Less 7.5mil sign items
Less 6.5 capex
Less 2mil interest
= fcf of 40mil. If that goes straight to cash then Pmp would be 16mil net cash. At 20c the ev would be 86mil giving an ev/ebitda of 1.5.

At that stage with net cash in a declining field with a mature duopoly a conservative ev/ebitda would probably be 4. Giving a share price in 2.5years of 40 cents.

This exercise is just based on the mid points of guidance with no upside.

No wonder hannan is buying...