Morgans and Veritas were the two underwriters to the Prime Turbines acquisition, yet their DCF valuations couldn't be further apart - 65c vs $1.80.
I think Morgans have made a valid assumption, that being revenue for 2021 coming in at 25% lower. The strong trading that continued into this year's 2nd half I'm guessing had a lot to do with work that had already been scheduled, prior to covid. This momentum will surely have changed by now, even if we exclude the negative impact on their largest customer, TMA.
Where Morgans have got it really wrong is on the cost side. They are saying that employee expenses as a percentage of revenue will blow out from about 14% pre- the Prime acquisition, to around 24% post-acquisition (2021) and 20% in 2022.
This is the major reason for Morgans predicting the Group will make a LOSS this coming year, and in spite of a solid recovery, EPS in 2022 coming in at only half the current rate. Remember, this is their base case scenario, not their worst case!
Unless management suffer a severe collective blow to the head, and have forgotten how to trim their sails, I can't see how on earth Morgans could have come to those conclusions.
As for Veritas, even if everything went swimmingly for PTB, it would never be worth $1.80 in 2022.
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