ATG 1.28% 38.5¢ articore group limited

On the basis of the trading update & letter to the shareholders,...

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  1. 141 Posts.
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    On the basis of the trading update & letter to the shareholders, here are the numbers I have approximated.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3137/3137644-b11067c484818dd4b9c7768016c012b8.jpg


    Allowing for a 12.5% EBITDA margin in FY24
    a 27.5% tax rate
    & ~15.5m in d&a charges.

    We get an NPAT of 102m, hopefully also resulting in excess cash of $300million.

    An implied SP on a basis of a 18x price to earnings ratio is ~$7.00.

    In the shorter term. the SP may well come under a lot of pressure as the CEO has flagged "disciplined investment" and sacrifice of bottom lines/margin now so that greater market share can be captured.

    Investment returns between now and 2024 are likely to be skewed in to the right. (I.e over 12-18 months the SP may go backwards, but the market will realise and re-rate the stock when it delivers on its promises in 2024.)
 
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