Ann: Trading Update, page-3

A great result - but what I found amazing was revenue/terminal - $1,100.
That figure just keeps increasing as time goes on - and any inflation (if you like to look at the macro) will only help.

If you still value the NZ business at $70m NZ, and you value the total business at $170m NZ (MC) - you're allowing $100m NZ for the Oz business.
Considering the business is now annualising >$40m (run-rate) and growing aquiring revenues at 80% p.a., this seems crazy.
Should that growth rate remain, the annualised run-rate revenue should hit $70m. Factor in 45% gross margins (lower than I expect) - that's $31.5m NZ GP

Take away your $12m running costs - you're left with $19.5m NZ PBT.

Sure, that assumes the current growth rate is maintained, which may be optimistic given COVID impacts. But even if they hit this figure in two years (34% growth p.a.), it'll still be ~5x PBT at that point.


This also doesn't factor in that the NZ business valuation will likely have changed, given the significance of non-cash payments following behavioural changes.


Valuation seems a fair bit off what it should be.