Not sure about the 50% EBITDA margins in future Macca. If you...

Not sure about the 50% EBITDA margins in future Macca. If you look at GP growth in recent years and consider that most of it is Australian, you can see that Australian gross margins are about 50% so EBITDA gonna end up something below that as the high gross margin NZ rental business gets further diluted.

Profit is going through the roof though. Looking at the EBITDA line. If you multiple this quarters Australian revenue by 4, which very conservatively implies not much growth in the second half, that is Australian revenue of $61m, so $28m of revenue growth on last year or $14m of additional gross margin. Even if marketing costs doubled from last year to $8m, that's an additional $10m of EBITDA other things being equal. So EBITDA should jump from $11m to at least $21m.

Based on the previous bid, the NZ business worth about $70m on $10m EBITDA (where it was before Australian expenditure began). With EV about $180m, Australia is valued $110m or about 10x remaining EBITDA or c.2x sales. Neither make sense given YOY revenue growth rate of 161% and rising. Smartpay is a rare investment at the moment with limited downside and still multiples of upside.

Not sure what SteveS $2-5m profit meant above. Full year profit going to be way beyond that I think. Deducting last years other costs of $8.4m from my $21m EBITDA gives $12.6m Net Profit up from $2.7m. The $8.4m other costs will probably rise a little but my $21m EBITDA is also conservative with likely a lot of growth in the second half.