There is no problem with fast food sales globally as you have pointed out.
I am digging into find more about DMP SP carnage. DMP was valued at growth rate PE rates. Around 30-35% of revenue is from Japan. If that market is going backwards for what ever reason, investors will adjust the high PE given to share price. It also means the store growth figures to 7000 in 2031 can not be achieved without Japan and France firing.
Over last 5 years there has been very good years in Japan as well as bad years. Statistic of undeniable store count increases from 500 to 1000 over the same period is in the figures.
So what is next in Japan? Don mentioned last few weeks the Japanese sales are flat compared to previous periods, that is an improvement. Of course it is a short period.
There are must be many reasons for Japanese under performance currently experiencing , but market has grown rapidly over last 5 years.
Don & the team needs to come up with solution and record good results in Japan & of course other Asian countries to say Dmp is a growth company. Even flat revenue for few months/ year will be sufficient to provide confidence to the market.
As you can see USA parent company is not affected by the carnage here for missing NPBT by $14m against FCST. SP there is near all time high with expectations of further upside. US revenue growth is pretty good.
With current NPBT of 90m for six months + all the savings from restructure and food ingredients cost savings, there is no threat to 2025 EPS around $2 for DMP. The restructure means reducing staff, legacy system removal, close of building and construction section. This is not a forecast, it will happen over 18 months and flow into P&L in 2025. So is cost of cheese which is down more than 25% from the peak. Exhaustion of stock in hand will see these savings in the P&L.
The problem is beyond 2026 , where is the growth in Net Profits coming from? . That is where above mentioned Japan story comes into play.
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