re: Ann: Trafigura Warrant Exercise and Kipoi...
Yeah it comes down to how much support he has from the military.
One thing to keep in mind is tribal territories. Apparently members of the eastern brigades refuse to fight because thats their tribal territory and would be firing on other members of the same tribe. In that respect its a different story closer to Tripoli which is Gaddafi's stronghold.
Another thing is military hardware. Gaddafi was at least smart enough to stock the most modern hardware in his stronghold. Other brigades in other parts of the country not under his or his son's direct control haven't the same quality, quantity(including ammunition) and training.
If Gaddafi's brigades stay loyal we'll see a civil war and he'll survive temporarily until opposing forces gather the means to defeat him.
Whatever happens there is no cause fundamentally to drive the copper price down. Its just sentiment and anticipation of it escalating into other areas of the world.
I feel the price of TGS will seriously move in the second half of the year. It should be over by then.
TGS Price at posting:
51.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
