Hey Doors, i remember you were involved in TIE (Tietto ) and this thing is smelling exactly like TIE did when it was smashed down to 28c just a few weeks before the initial 58c Chinese offer...
The Chinese have an uncanny ability to achieve their objective.
Just reading the amazing scoping study again released last Xmas , and it was amazing using a conservative Gold price of US$ 1,550
The sensitivity analysis on the Gold price is what should help us sleep at night considering when initial offer was made gold was just US$2,000 & it's now $2,510 & they didn't even use a higher Gold price in there sensitivity analysis...
@ $2,510 Todays Gold price, the npv has moved from US$446 million to US$746 million.
So do you think if the npv has increased by over US$300,000,000 then the successful buyers needs to increase their current bid from US$80 million ?
Insane.............. Chifeng who already own 10% of MTC means they would only need to buy about 180 million shares to make a full takeover..
Chifeng , because they already own about 20,000,000 MTC shares would only need to spend about US$100 million to bid 84c a share.
One thing is for sure, the TMF offer is obsolete, it's miles too low, and even if Chifeng bid 84c for a full takeover they are getting it dirt cheap.
I have previously been very annoyed they are taking so long, but the simple fact is if Gold price just holds around $2,500 then it would be ridiculous giving it away to TMF..
If Gold goes any higher, then +$1 is still too cheap.
Chifeng full takeover schedule:
@ 84c a share -> cost them just US$100 million @ 94c a share -> cost them just US$111 million @ $1.04 a share -> cost them just US$123 million.
If you are a Chifeng accountant and you can buy a US$746,000,000 npv asset for just US$100 million then you are getting the ass if you let someone else steal it from under you i think.
Ok, finally, people think gold is going higher, so it's easy to work out that the npv increases by about US$50 million for every $100 increase in the Gold price.
Gold $2,600 --> npv US$800 million Gold $2,700 --> npv US$850 million Gold $2,800 --> npv US$950 million Gold $2,900 --> npv US$1 BILLION ( Aussie $1,500,000,000 = $7.50 a share )
current market cap @ 18c = $35 million
MTC Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)