I haven't posted on HC for a long time and am just catching up on the threads after travelling for a few weeks. I hold 600,000 shares, accumulated from 2018 to 2021, and I don't like the merger proposal at all. There seem to be very few synergies; a bigger orebody is not better, as TMT already has sufficient ore to be economic; the strategy for the combined entity is not clear; and TMT is clearly undervalued. I have never wanted to be an AVL shareholder and I don't want to be now. I will vote No.
The last few years have been frustrating with changes to approach and the backdrop of declining V prices, but VRFBs are about to change the market dynamics and TMT is close to a position of readiness to exploit that. This is not the time to get preoccupied with a merger, the benefit of which will not be clear until a full integration study has been done (and maybe not even then!). The best case outcome, as I see it, is an 18-month delay and then a new DFS which would have little improvement in economics. In the meantime, other sources of vanadium might meet the emerging market demand.
I really didn't like the patronising tone of the Transaction Update. The 26% indicating Yes are fine, but the 9% indicating No are discounted because the scheme booklet hasn't been published yet. And broadcasting to the entire market that the "No" submissions were copied and contained errors, what kind of a dumb cheap shot is that? It sounds like it was written by Sabine (who makes me want to vote No even more, with every one of its posts).
Figaro
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