Hmm, I think there is some weakness in this report when you get in to it. Not just the Covid-19 situation which is forgivable, but some other key developments.
Melbourne's West Gate Tunnell is "no longer achievable in 2023", a further downgrade from April 2020's announcement that Transurban would negotiate with the Victorian Government over it's inability to meet the 2022 deadline. No guidance provided. This could become costly in terms of lost revenue and penalties in delays.
The other issue is that they lost ta bid this year for one road development in the US. The only new potential development of substance is really the American Legion Bridge in Maryland, which they're down to the last three. Decision I believe is expected in February, so any day now?
And of course with Covid-19, you can see that while things are bouncing back in some jurisdictions, free cash flow has taken huge hit of 49% which I think is worse than the market expected (revenue only down 16%).
They're only down like 10% since mid 2019, and there's been a lot of headwinds since then including Covid and Westgate. Quite remarkable how resilient the stock is with a 2.2% dividend yield..
TCL Price at posting:
$13.04 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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