I was busy compiling a post of my own, so I missed this one from you.
(Coincidentally, I too used 15% FCF growth in my prospective FCF yield forecasts but clearly this is quite generous given the $174m capital release is a one-off, as you also note).
One issue that I have is your omission to account for TCL's debt in your yield calcs.
Given that:
1.) the level of debt in question is substantial, both in the context of TCL's current cash flows, as well as relative to the market value of the company, and
2.) the fact that the equity market - which has probably been a bit complacent about borrowings in the past near-decade of easy money - is likely to be decidedly more sensitised to it during a rising interest rate environment, irrespective of TCL's interest rate hedging,
...don't you feel that one needs to somehow incorporate the company's borrowings into any valuation consideration?
TCL Price at posting:
$11.39 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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