Reiner,
My view is that the 'ifs' are turning to 'will' and 'is'.
Basically, everything is making a lot of sense.
The big 'if' now is whether CRE will turn to profit. Given the management capabilities of FML and their track record, plus Campell's knowledge of CRE's prospects, I think that in this case you have to have combine fact with insight and a bit of faith.
I think the market is taking everything with caution at the moment and it isn't specific to FML. It's almost as if people just don't care right now. That is probably a bullish signal is it not?
In a scenario where they can bring CRE to profit neutral from operations, we still have the mill and the tax credits which fit well with the TI strategy (with which we were all hopeful and is now becoming a reality). If CRE is profit neutral from operations and the price of gold rises to say $2,000 at the end of the year (which is possible), it provides significant upside leverage (and downside but depends on your view of POG of course). If FML can bring costs down to the original plan of $800-$850 for CRE operations, and I have a feeling that they think this is possible, then it is simply a win-win.
I'm not trying to be over optimistic here, as my philosophy is to be a realist, but I see significant value to the upside short term, medium term and long term and I can't help but have a positive sentiment as a result.
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