ann: trial mining update, page-63

Good post Bruce.

I don't know how it feels for you guys but to me time seems to be flying.
I only started buying in last year on the back of a maiden jorc resource and already we are now digging up ore and stockpiling for treatment next month. There is a good chance we transition from trial mining to continuous mining under a ML with little or no delay in-between.
The plant is scheduled to arrive in 2 weeks and we should see first gold in just 3-4 weeks. We have been told to expect regular updates through the process. Some reports and photos of better than expected visible gold might do the trick for the sp- fingers crossed for something like that.

This all coincides with the end of tax loss selling time which for some companies may already be over and the last few days has seen our market give signs that the broad market has already bottomed for this years usual April/May/June correction.
Most gold stocks have held their May lows. NCM being one of the exceptions after a late negative update with plenty of questions being asked over disclosure (so appears more a company specific issue).

Gold is seasonally weak through May and June but check the chart below for July/Aug/Sep. We are just about to enter the strongest time in the year for gold (and markets generally post tax loss selling- with this tax loss selling rebound effect being especially strong in the smaller hardest hit stocks).
So while the short term can be difficult, the odds certainly favour this to be a good time for a strong counter rally at the least and possibly something more like a new longer lasting up trend for this most beat up sector.
I still don't buy the QE tapering talk. The world economy is too fragile. Any tapering when it does happen will be small and very gradual IMO and its still QE even if at a reduced rate. On top of that the current POG does not come even close to high enough to factor in the printing to date ($2500 at the minimum would be more like it) so anything below $2500 IMO is no where near a bubble ready to pop. I still see this as very similar to the 1975 50% correction for gold from $200 to $100 (after initially rising from $35) before the larger move to $800. That period showed that even a 50% correction for gold does not necessarily spell the end for a bull market. 17-20% interest rates are what stopped that bull market and I think it will take a very dramatic change in fundamentals (or exponential move in POG to end this bull market as well. This is backed up by the COT chart which is very bullish for gold- i.e. the commercials (who have a stronger record of getting it right compared to the specs) have rapidly and dramatically reduced their shorts in gold over the last few months suggesting a major bottom is near.
In the mean time everything appears to be lining up for the short term for both gold (seasonally) and ABU specifically. It certainly appears possible that we are at a major low point here.