ann: trial mining update, page-74

There may also be other points to consider re the seasonality of gold discussion;

Was the buying over the last two months related to usual Sept qtr buying by the Indians for their festival/wedding season or was it a different kind of buying across the world locking in low prices for long term investment? How do we know when this new type of buying will end?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40655.html

In Hyderabad, a city of nearly 7 million people , gold and jewellery shops in the city have dwindling stocks of gold coins and bars. Some have completely run out of stock of the best-selling gold coins while others are having to ration their remaining stocks. The gold rush is expected to continue for some time, due to delays in jewellery and coin shops receiving supplies of coins from banks and bullion brokers. This is creating a delay in the entire supply chain.
The U.S. Mint sales of gold coins were the highest in 3 years after demand surged on the recent price drop. Yesterday, the U.S. Mint resumed sales of their 1/10th ounce gold coin after the mint ran out of inventory last month and suspended sales amid record demand. In the U.S., there are difficulties in sourcing British Sovereigns (0.2345 oz), Chinese Pandas (1 oz) and Australian Kangaroos (1 oz) in volume. The Royal Mint (UK), The Perth Mint in Australia and other mints are seeing record levels of demand.
This morning The World Gold Council confirmed the very strong demand being seen globally and especially in Asia. Asian gold demand from this April to June will reach a quarterly record as bullion buyers in China, India and the rest of the region take possession of supply freed up by selling from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the WGC said. "Asian markets will see record quarterly totals of gold demand in the second quarter of 2013," WGC Managing Director Marcus Grubb said in a report released this morning. Gold demand in India, the world’s largest buyer, is heading for a quarterly record after prices fell to a two-year low in April, The World Gold Council said. "Even if ETF outflows continue in the United States, it is quite likely that the gold previously held in ETFs will find a ready market among Indian, Chinese and Middle Eastern consumers who are taking a long-term view on the prospects for gold." A long term view remains vital to protecting and growing wealth today.

Then there is the first of what may be a stream of new Chinese gold ETF’s. How long will that fresh ETF buying last?
The normal seasonal buying might just get a strong boost even before Western traders think about buying back in.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/huaan-s-china-gold-etf-seeks-400-million-after-bullion-slumps.html

Huaan Asset Management Co. aims to attract as much as $400 million in initial funding for one of China’s first two gold exchange-traded funds as a drop in prices attracts buyers in the second-biggest consumer of bullion.
The product, to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, will track the performance of spot contracts on the city’s gold bourse, Xu Yiyi, the fund manager who will run the ETF, said in a telephone interview. Shanghai-based Huaan has yet to set a date to market the fund to investors, he said.
Huaan, which had considered starting a gold ETF for four years, ran into regulatory difficulty because of a rule prohibiting funds investing directly in physical commodities, Xu said. The company overcame this by linking the fund to contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rather than bullion sitting in a vault, he said.
China Construction Bank Corp. (939) will be the custodian bank for the ETF, with responsibility for ensuring that spot gold contracts are in place to back the fund, according to Xu.

May be much more than the usual gold seasonal buying to support ABU and other gold stocks for the next 6 months or more.