I think I remember some good comments from you recently when you were a holder. So, it would be good to have you back as a TONner at some stage when you feel appropriate. I’ll try to comment on every word of your point as best as I can. Your comments in red below.
“Always interested to read your posts. My concern about your analysis is the lack of threats and risk assessments. It is clear TON has many positives, easy to come up with, but this to me is the main negative.” – @Explacly
I’ve done my best to address risk areas not just for TON but for the entire graphite sector. Refer Point (C) of my overall overview - Risk management and key issues.I’ve even mentioned how TON is positioned to address those risks. There were 8 main points I mentioned there. There might have been more since my last overview in August in my comment history (not sure) and if so, I’ll consolidate them in the next overview http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-overview-aug-21.2577980/?post_id=15853778
“Some of the negatives that I think are reflected in the sp are:
- This is a company going from explorer to > 1 mining operation (good),” - @Explacly Point C-3 in my risk management section of the overview linked above, addresses common pitfalls faced by junior explorers as they try to become producers and how TON is best positioned to addressed them. We also see there how the share price fluctuates in the process and shoots up as the picture becomes clearer.
>2 or 3 mining operations (at the same time?), - @Explacly
I’m not sure how this is a risk area. Ancuabe T12 (best quality jumbo flake and possible part of bigger alliance with AMG) , Nicanda P66 (jumbo flake) and Nicanda 100 (world’s largest graphite deposit) all serve different goals, as I mentioned in my earlier comment.
Vertical integration JVs with YXGC really separate us from all the other graphite companies.
Also as TON has clearly mentioned in the presentation, they are doing things in phases; so it is not all at the same time.
TON is not just dependent on selling graphite but is also into JV’s for selling enhanced graphite products. This is a major plus over all other graphite companies
Note again that the Moz JV will be up and running much later in later years. So, it is hardly a risk area right now.
I've also covered Moz risk in points C-6 and C-7 of my overview.
This is the major area attracting YXGC to TON, as they would obviously want to focus on China. It also gives us great access to the world's largest market.
A number of announcements were made during the year regarding funding, drilling and JV's with a timeline that have all been pushed out. The company strategy appears to be changing in this regard. - @Explacly
A) I can’t remember anything material event being pushed out in our timeline. We have to remember that SQZG agreement was never a binding agreement but just a LOI. I myself have not referred much to them in most of my comments in recent months for that reason. So nothing really has been pushed out. None of the graphite companies have secured actual debt funding (I’m talking about actually receiving cash).
B) I sorted out the upcoming news flow according to dates recently (refer points 8 to 11) http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-triton-corporate-presentation.2616477/page-13?post_id=16186913 As can be seen, news flow this quarter includes
Ancuabe T12 - Mineral Resource -Q4 2015
Nicanda hill P66 - Mineral Resource -Q4 2015
Nicanda hill 100 - Reserves targeted for -Q4 2015
So, we'll be getting a lot of clarity soon.
C) Lastly, with regards to JV’s, I’m not sure as to what is pushed out, but I’m sure there will be changes if the situation demands it. We cannot have anything set in stone in a rapidly changing market.
I want to re-enter with TON at some stage but at the moment there are too many uncertainties. - @Explacly
There would always be uncertainties and that is why the share price is so low. As more and more boxes are ticked, the share price should ideally reflect that. As @Rat1973 mentioned, many instos themselves would be waiting for certain criteria to be fulfilled before getting in. Some would wait for DFS, some for funding etc. Getting in early obviously has more risks but more rewards too.
Anyway, I hope I’ve answered your questions to the best of my ability. I do remember some recent comments of yours and do hope to have you back at some stage. Cheers
TON Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held