Hi TG,
One of the keys to good investing is buying low and selling high and also seeing comparable values in the industry and broader macro factors.
This topic shouldn’t really be coming up on our forum from you, every few days. I thought we discussed this a few weeks back
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/addressing-recent-concerns.2608604/page-4?post_id=16110012
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/addressing-recent-concerns.2608604/page-27?post_id=16112020
1) Broader commodity hit
6 month movement of
Santos – down 40%
http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:sto&ei=mbAQVqDUGI-U0AT7zILgCA
Glencore – down 66%
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:GLEN&ei=3bAQVqmYOcuY0AT28Z0w
BHP – down 25%
http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:BHP&ei=7bAQVpHcJdaL0ATPgYTwBw
Barrick Gold – down 45%
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:ABX&ei=BrEQVumqHtaL0ATPgYTwBw
Anglo American – down 45%
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:AAL&ei=HLEQVvmQF4eQ0gT_uLGgDg
As already explained TON’s fall is part of graphite sector fall which is part of broader commodity fall
Graphite sector
TON SYR LMB KNL MNS MOZ MTA TLG BUX LML AXE SER MRF WKT IXR BBR
People can check within the graphit sector for themselves as many stocks have had sharp fluctuations (all explained 2-3 weeks backs)
2) Movement from March
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
|
2-Mar |
16-Oct |
Diff |
% gain / (loss) |
| 2 |
MNS |
28.5 |
38.5 |
10 |
35.1% |
| 3 |
TON |
15 |
21.5 |
6.5 |
43.3% |
| 4 |
SYR |
4.46 |
3.12 |
-1.34 |
-30.0% |
March 1
st was a Sunday. So 1
st trading day is Monday. As can be seen,TON is the best performing stock among the super pits from March. Not much to complain about really
3) 2 year movement
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
|
Dec 13, 2013 |
16-Oct |
Diff |
% gain / (loss) |
| 2 |
MNS |
20 |
38.5 |
18.5 |
92.5% |
| 3 |
TON |
5.2 |
21.5 |
16.3 |
313.5% |
| 4 |
SYR |
2.55 |
3.12 |
0.57 |
22.4% |
TON is one of the best performers over 2 years too, TG. We have been mentioning often that TON is a fast developing company gettting more and more recognition
4) Recent weakness in graphite sector
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
|
Aug 27, 2015 |
16-Oct |
Diff |
% gain / (loss) |
| 2 |
MNS |
53.5 |
38.5 |
-15 |
-28.0% |
| 3 |
TON |
25 |
21.5 |
-3.5 |
-14.0% |
| 4 |
SYR |
2.82 |
3.12 |
0.3 |
10.6% |
TON has not done too bad considering recent weakness in graphite sector. SYR got hit quite hard recently and recently recovered. MNS also seems to be in a sharp downtrend; so some weakness across super pits seems to be the case.
MNS obviously got hit very hard after falling from almost 60 (note that if I had taken the 58-60 figure, it would have shown an even bigger hit). I did mention in our recent discussion that “let us see how long they manage to hold their gains” if you remember me saying so. TONners should hope that any further weakness from MNS does not spill over
So yeah, TON has not done too bad after all.
5) Peer imbalance
Buy low and sell high - a timeless strategy. Selling and talking about selling at this level does not make much sense to me, at least.
TON’s diluted market cap is something like 90 million as I just showed yesterday.
MNS was around 250 million a short while back. They also came up with even more shares recently. I’ve not calculated and seen the latest fig.
SYR’s undiluted market cap is around 723 million.Take into account dilution and it maybe even more - maybe close to 800 million.
So TON is clearly the safest option still. It is not just the fundamentals but cheap on every metric.
6) Conclusion
So yeah, TG – TON seems quite safe to me as explained above.
Other companies also have their ups and downs which is part of investing in stocks.
We've talked lots of fundamentals. So, I guess, there is no need to go into that again.
