Fairly new here so please excuse my basic understanding of the company and its revenues etc. Hoping to post publicly so I can be corrected instead of being privately wrong!
So Acadia's CEO has projected near US $1Bn in sales. Based on Acadia's last quarter and 9-monthly sales figures, Daybue contributed to about 36% of their sales, which is US $360Mn.
>= $250 Mn sales triggers one off $50Mn milestone payment plus 12% royalty on $360Mn = US $43.2Mn. That's total of US $93.2Mn in milestone and royalty payment. We also are to receive US $50Mn for our portion of the PRV sale. That brings total receivable from Acadia to US $143.2Mn (assuming $360Mn sales target is hit).
At USD to AUD conversion of 1.6, that is about AUD $229.12Mn to be received in Q1 25 from Acadia.
The company is sitting on AUD $210Mn in cash as at 7/11/24. Excluding any reduction in cash (incl. buyback) that gives us a total visibility of roughly $440Mn.
I am sure someone will pick up on my errors and misunderstanding. Thanks.
No advice. Just my guess.
NEU Price at posting:
$11.01 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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