Interesting update. Learning from Lark. Whiskey NSV is much...

Interesting update. Learning from Lark. Whiskey NSV is much better than I expected, margins in RTD must be very good, also their wanted series also good. Agave is the value kicker in here but takes time. Annualising Q4 sales they are on track to achieve well over $40m of sales in Fy2022. If growth rates continue could see +$50m of sales no problems. 12m price target based on the following well accepted industry metric of EV/Sales. This is a lower quality volume brand but alot of growth, and some differentiation with its agave.. So instead of the 7x multiple (Broker updated Lark to this multiple this morning inline with peers)... Ill apply 3.5x so a 50% discount (this is so conservative)..... Then Current valuation of $20m x 3.5x is $70m.. But forward 12 months on $50m of sales $175m EV... This valuation is also support by $180 of maturing value of whiskey for 12months time.. Subtract $30m debt.. $150m Mkt Cap base case in 12m... Gets $3.00.

This valuation completely ignores the Agave business, which can in its own right add a similar EV (so another $3.00) This would come through in FY2024 when they are forecasting $50m of matured product - so that comes through as sales at 3.5 times multiples, theres the further $3.00.
Its a longer term play, but a June 2025 base case price target of $6.00....

Today's update is my signal the buy more. Hope you held through the sell off!

Cheers, DYOR this is a very basic analysis using some standard industry metrics and there is still execution risk... They need to sell the stuff.. But they are achieving growth, and this appears to be without mad discounting as the NSV would not have increased if heavy discounting drove the revenue growth (this was marketing spend driving sales, and its obviously working).