Have been watching this one since Collins St got in. Probably...

Have been watching this one since Collins St got in. Probably agree with your comments here: capex of $492M seems too big a hurdle unless they really drill out the deposit further and find something special.

Market won't be impressed by someone using A$3,500/oz as their base case. Quick flick around the grounds shows that others are using much lower assumptions, i.e. HRN's March scoping study has $2,900/oz and DEG's recent Hemi regional scoping study had $2,700/oz.

Their sensitivity analysis is also light on, only shows change in NPV, not IRR. Also highlights that it's highly sensitive to the gold price - which they've been aggressive on; only a 10% drop from A$3,500/oz to $3,150/oz and the NPV falls at least 40% from A$512M to ~A$300M. Can only imagine what would happen to the NPV if they used something like A$2,900 or A$2,700. I suspect that's why the IRR sensitivity has been left out...

Confirms my suspicions that when a company calls their scoping study "positive", it usually underwhelms (lots of recent examples here).