How long is a piece of string to be fair haha. So take what I am going to say with a bag of salt.
The first thing you have to think about is that IGV for gold stocks is VERY cyclical. But at the moment it feels like we are very much near the low end.
CHZ got taken out for about $60m for what probably would have been 1Moz at their next upgrade - but that had strong overall grades (which I think does have some influence) - so that was about A$60/oz. That was in Senegal.
There are some WA plays currently trading at like A$20-30/oz. Historically you would have expected a WA premium but I think some (probably not all) of that has normalised with Africa being cheaper and usually easier geology balanced out against jurisdiction. Cote d'Ívoire better part of Africa though.
Osino trading around A$180m for ~4Moz and some nice greenfields hits putting it at A$45/oz and a grade profile closer to what Woulo Woulo looks like.
So scale is a third thing that plays into IGV IMO. If you have standalone development scale then your ounces are worth more than someone that can't. I mean that just makes logical sense right.
So I think your factors are grade, location and scale.
At the moment if TCG could prove up an MRE of 2Moz I think it trades somewhere in that A$30-40 range. But at the top of a gold cycle then I think that expands to more like the $100-200 range.
So right now you could say maybe we are approaching fair value (I figure they raise $10m at 8-10c soon if they can keep VWAP up) BUT optionality is huge. They look like they have the ground to push to 3-5Moz. So that's value uplift one. Then we have the gold cycle, that's value uplift number 2. The third element of the value cycle is doing PEA's and moving the project forward which this looks like it has the right characteristics for.
So circle back to this is a long winded way of saying how long is a piece of string lol, but some of the things I look at/consider
Edit: Looks like raise hit as I was typing
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