I've asked Chat GPT to re-arrange my notes from the PFS - it's a...

I've asked Chat GPT to re-arrange my notes from the PFS - it's a bit better, but still hard to follow :

Project Overview

• Resource Expansion: Co-product (Met Spar), lower grade blended to extend life.
• Production Tax Credit: Drops C1 Cost from US$303 to US$288.
• Capex: AUD$236.3M.
• Annual Revenue: $184M, EBITDA $114M.
• Mine Life: 10.6 years, with potential to increase through resource expansion, also pushing up IRR and NPV8.
• Reach JV Agreement: Expected end of 2024 with Sumitomo.
• Project Debt: Funded by Sumitomo.
• Project Equity: The company intends to minimize.
• Funding to FID: Potential via Critical Minerals grant.

Timeline

• Q1 2027: Start-up with a capacity of 140ktpa Fluorspar.
• Forecast Supply Deficit: 900ktpa by 2030, 3 years after production start-up.

Market Analysis

• Lack of Greenfield Developments: No new projects except Speewah this decade.
• Use Semi-Conductors: Wet Etching & CVD cleaning.
• India & China Imports: 300ktpa and 1Mtpa respectively, both growing with reduced tariffs on imports.
• Sumitomo Philosophy: “The benefit for self and others, private and public interests are one in the same.”
• Acid Grade Fluorspar: 20kg per 40kWh battery, EV batteries estimated 1900ktpa by 2030 (see Figure 9).
• Construction Jobs: 300 jobs during construction, 125-150 long-term jobs.
• China Fluorspar Depletion: Highlighted in Figure 10.

Resource and Production Details

• Stage 1: New mine drilling Q3 2024, target up to 1050kt 24-30% CaF2.
• Stage 2: 980kt 22-40% CaF2.
• Stage 3: 810-1600kt 15-25%.
• Stage 4: 220kt 25-35%.
• Stage 5: 810-1600kt 15-25%.
• Total Potential: If additional veins are present, bridging gaps between resources - 25%+ 5.9MT. Not including low grade.

Test Work and Results

• Historical Test Work: Blended HG/LG ore composite (Table 16).
• Test Work Details: Ammtec blended ore of 21.6% recovery rate of 92.9%, end grade of 96.8%, prior studies used 40% CaF2.
• Arsenic Levels: Less than 3ppm (premium product).
• Mexico Reserve Comparison: 250-300ppm.
• ALS Testing: Results expected in August.
• Plant Feed: 710,000-800,000tpa with grade 17-17.5%, producing 140ktpa of CaF2.

Economic and Market Projections

• Fluorspar Pricing: Latest data (Figure 41) - 90% Metspar US$800, 85% Metspar US$690, 97% acidspar $US620.
• Acid Grade Price Trend: US$900 by 2030 (Figure 65).
• Stockpiled Lower Grade Ore: For future processing when mining is unnecessary.
• 37km Access Road : Cost estimate $54.3M - $27.15 included in infrastructure cost, the other 50% assumed from govt - citing 4 examples Mt Holland $120M, Browns Range $51M, Perdaman $50M, Hedland Road/Rail $22M

Environmental and Regulatory

• Environmental Assessment: Non-formal process, 4-6 week approval once referred.
• Studies Completed/Planned: Flora/Vegetation, Subterranean Fauna Q2 25, Terrestrial Fauna/enviro Q1 25, Ground/surface water Q2 25.
• Groundwater Bore Holes: Commence Q3 25, start on production boreholes (SRK).
• Tailings Storage Facility: 6.74Mt dry storage, location selected.
• Fuel/Diesel Supply: Logistics via Cambridge Gulf at Wyndham.
• Drilling and Feasibility Timeline: Dec 24 - drilling finished, feasibility testwork, JV & #1 ILUA Road; Q1 25 - assays, resource update, feasibility study, environmental assessments; Q3 25 - ILUA site road 2, enviro approval, mining proposal & work licences, DFS.

Implementation and Logistics

• Implementation Schedule: 17-month construction, 3-month commissioning & production ramp, relatively simple process.
• Local & Indigenous Engagement: Table 26, 11 groups.
• Road Use: 5 local communities, transmission line servicing, 50 river crossings, additional access for tourism (ie. El Q to Argyle).
• Process Plant Components: Lab, admin, first aid, container yard, concentrate storage & handling, water services, concentrate dewatering, tails thickening, flotation, reagents & storage, milling, plant workshop, warehouse, crib room, ablutions, coarse ore stockpile, ROM bin, sewage treatment, power station, reclaimer, primary crushing, air services, mine services, LNG storage.
• Power Source: Hybrid model - LNG/Solar, further development with Ord Hydro.
• Projected Supply Deficit: Expected to emerge in 2026 (Benchmark/Project Blue).

Market and Offtake

• China Fluorspar Depletion: 30% by 2030 (Figure 69).
• Offtake Marketed by Sumitomo: Interest from Asian markets including China, structural shortage of Metspar in China.

What are Prefeasibility and Feasibility Studies?

A prefeasibility study (PFS) is an early stage analysis of a potential mining project. These studies are conducted by a small team and are designed to give company stakeholders the basic information they need to greenlight a project or choose between potential investments. They typically give an overview of a mining project’s logistics, capital requirements, key challenges and other information deemed important to the decision-making process, such as whether the operation will be open pit or underground.

This study goes into great detail of an emerging supply deficit - this is already evident in Metspar (lower grade) with pricing outperforming higher grade acid spar. Acidspar has followed the Metspar trend although at lower valuation. Currently at US$620 according to Fastmarkets.





One of the plain as the nose on your face charts is the reserve depletion Figure 69 which shows China depleting their ore reserves by 2030 if current consumption is maintained at 5.7Mtpa


This shows Mexico is anticipated to have 32% of world reserves by 2030 - but remember the deposit has higher Arsenic at 250-300ppm.

The element of security of supply is very well explained also - look at China exports of Hydrofluoric Acid - Japan & South Korea each are importing 30% from China - with depletion of reserves, as has happened with China shifting from a net exporter of Fluorspar to an importer, what happens with this particular export market?


And the projects mentioned - from lower grade, underground mining required, small amount of tonnage, currently in depletion etc, the Speewah reserve stacks up very well.



Historically there were five testwork programs:

All returned good results


The company will have results from ALS in August as to suitability of the samples for additional test work along with replacement reagents.
Along with this they will look at identifying opportunities for optimisation of product grades & recoveries from Ammtec's testing.

What is particularly of interest here is the fact the company engaged Lycopodium to run the PFS -
They produced a detailed study for the St Lawrence Canadian project :
But as I've mentioned before they were & are involved with the Nokeng Fluorite project - from a linked in Profile


Identification of risk, constraints & opportunities is covered incredibly well in this PFS.

The supply deficit projected there seems to be no way around it - I mean today we got this : Uber and BYD teams up to bring 100,000 EVs to its ride-hailing platform & on August 8 Tesla will talk more about their Semis - the market is just growing larger with China’s EV sales now over 50% of new car's sold

And it is such a simple process which Lyco know all about - including a very recent design, ramp/run up to nameplate of the same sized plant at Nokeng



I'd have liked a better picture of this however the actual process plant bits are highlighted - outside of this is material handling, coarse ore crushing.
They've included Future Tails thickening which would be the opportunity for Metspar - however if prices stay where they are, there is a case that this could be included in the DFS.




Lastly the capital cost table deserves some consideration

The process plant & Reagent plant around $70M of the total.
Infastructure is loaded with the $27 for the road - however the value of this road would not just service the mine - provide a transmission corridor for power from the Ord, create ring road opportunity through to El Questro - a shorter route opening up extended tourism opportunities through to Lake Argyle, noting the company is engaged with the owners of El Questro re: providion of accommodation & camp services - this would potentially remove even more of the cost from the infrastructure numbers below. And the road would also benefit the local communities & the pastoral lease holders, if not improve enviro outcomes as there are 50 water interactions with the existing track.



With all that said, the process plant & reagent plant at $70M would be solid enough based on Lyco's very recent experience & with historical testwork being reviewed by ALS & results available in August (what day is it today?) - a conservative PFS as the upside with resource expansion & significant resource depletion in the current major consumer are indicative of the stars aligning at the right time for anyone with a Fluorite deposit.

The Feasibility in Q1 of 2025, the DFS Q3 2025 - there is significant news flow to come.