Hey
@brunodThe KPIs if you like that TVN will need to navigate their way through (as I see it) are a bit different than pre-RRR
To put some context around this, along with TVN there are 2 other ASX listed battery/critical mineral companies who are working to augment their extraction processes with new/re-engineered processing technologies whom I follow pretty closely.
One of them spent a fair amount of time & money on process engineering then lab validating their process in Perth to produce from different supplies (they are looking at multi-mines/lines of raw material supply) to produce nickel, cobalt & copper sulphates (salts) which can then be combined into Lithium battery pre-cursor materials. For a small cap this is impressive as BHP did something similar with a mega-budget which led to the nickel sulphate plant at Kwinana that supplies Tesla.
The second company are working with a US based Direct Exchange Lithium technology developer.
Watching both of these companies approach is in some ways similar to TVN - it has introduced me to the TRL (Timeline Readiness Level) along with conventional project delivery phases.
Back in 2015 when I first stumbled across this company the intent was to set myself up to go back to uni to take on an MBA or something similar where I'm sure this stuff is covered in fine detail, but regardless, real world exposure both in my day to day job & following along what these companies have embarked on, has given me some understanding in the challenges & most of all, pitfalls if not approached in the right way.
The other two companies have navigated the TRL almost to a T - one is at level 4, the other I'd rate at about 7 or 8 - they have 2,000 hours of operational data of a fully sized module if you like, that they will simply need to scale out, add more of, for the commercialization to be proven - ie level 9.
The TIVAN technology is a hard one to judge - they certainly did hit level 4 but that was a long time ago & subsequent development, with SMS in Germany as best I can tell, may have pushed this up to a level 5 or 6.
*I'm not sure why a prototype, aka demonstration plant or pilot plant ex the value added TiO2 powder processing circuit, was never built.
Pilot-Demo plant - I think then that it is something that needs to be built - 18 months to 2 years would be a rough estimate here on the proviso that the process is well understood & scaling down to pilot plant size is something that has already been considered - SMS would have done this in their own labs so it could be a matter of taking this lab arrangement & scaling up. In fact I'd not be surprised if this was at some stage considered & some engineering work done on this approach.
Speewah water - The Argyle Dam is not so far away so I don't see this as a major impediment.
Speewah approvals - WA gov site on approvals gives an indicative timeline on what to expect - ie. 95 days high risk water applications, 43 days native vegetation, 60 days under the EPBC act - so from submission to approval - this to me looks like 3-4 months will cover it. That APM who have intimate knowledge of both the bene plant, refinery have been retained suggests that the actual time to submission could be shorter than were the company starting from stage 1 Project Identification/initiation phase below.
MASDP will operate under an SEA (strategic environmental assessment) which is being put together by the Department of Infrastructure, Planning & Logistics. So although somewhat at arms length in terms of TVN control, as the first (AFAIK) nominee for the estate the work APM/TVN have already done at Middle Arm on EIS will be invaluable input to the SEA & I'm sure the TVN team will have a seat at the table endeavouring to help execute this process through to conclusion.
Then there is plant location assessment for Speewah & designing around that, designing the bene plant for a different ore body - higher concentrate values means different processing equipment (magnetic separation, electrostatic separation, WHIMS etc), not to mention if they are going to scale up the refinery. So there is going to be a significant amount of design work on this front.
An added bonus to all this above is integration of renewables, autonomous everything, digital twins & low impact waste processes into what the company will need to do - I've said before that they have an advantage over incumbent mining/refining majors in that the entire industry is facing these same challenges & it is many times harder to introduce new concepts completely divorced from how things have been always been done in terms of project delivery.
So TVN can source the latest & greatest on these fronts without worrying about people breaking the looms. This is why, I'm sure, Forrest created Fortescue Future Industries.
**We could not ask for anyone better than Dr Robinson to manage this part of what the company will need to become. Noting also that SMS are leaders in Digitalisation in their own right.**
If all of this happens simultaneously I give us a very good chance that 24 months a whole bunch of boxes are ticked - mostly because we are not starting from scratch in terms of Technology readiness nor Project delivery - IOW we can jump from TRL 4-9 pretty quickly with a demo/pilot plant. Likewise a lot of the work done for Mt Peake & the DRF can be rebadged so that an accelerated Definition Phase is very achievable & because they have time, the Execution Phase can be extremely well planned.
36 months to breaking ground, my best guess is they will have done so already & in multiple locations.
(20min delay)
