I took a gamble and got in on the close, trading short term though, lets hope for the gap up tomorrow, 2 down days totalling 20% drop since news broke, not even sure if its targeted at TWE as no evidence of dumping, Citi estimates China accounts for 7% of Treasury Wine's . Way over done.
Heres extract from Citi broker call "
Citi notes the increased risk from China's anti-dumping investigation. Australian wine accounts for 25% of all imports and it's not clear from the data there is dumping.
Citi estimates China accounts for 7% of Treasury Wine's volumes and 35% of its earnings (EBIT). In the longer term, if tariffs were reintroduced then volumes could fall -50% to China, however, the broker considers this probability low at this stage.
Citi also notes the market has reacted swiftly to the risk but awaits more details about the potential ramifications. Neutral rating. Target $12.65."
TWE Price at posting:
$9.68 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)