Hi stumpy,
As always, I really appreciate your financial insights on Vali. Not my strength I afraid to say, but I have tried to take a look at potential short-term gas sale receipts for MEL for the period Feb 21 - March 31, 2023 and then for the April-end June 2nd quarter 2023. Please feel free to correct me wherever you see fit
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When I assume well and facilities are at 100% uptime, 3.9mmscf/d raw gas (3.12mmscf/d hc gas) for Vali1ST1, Vali-2 and Vali-3, and use $6/GJ, for 2Q 2023 I get net revenue to MEL of $1.35 million which is very close to your estimate. For my estimate below, I assumed a certain amount of production/facilities downtime, and different production rates for Vali-2 and Vali-3; perhaps I've been overly conservative....
Now, with a Market Cap. of $21 million, I will be keen to see if these sorts of gas sale receipts numbers sway longer term investor to buy into MEL. Of course, I have not taken into account various expenses incurred by MEL over this period. e.g. interest payments on debt, G&A, cash calls from VEN etc...
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Kind regards OldGeo
(20min delay)