Thanks for sharing Morgan's analysis @Mlowie26It was nice to see...

Thanks for sharing Morgan's analysis @Mlowie26

It was nice to see them affirming our P/E estimates of ~3.4 and EV/EBITDA of ~1.5.

I would query their revenue estimates for all future years.

For example, if KAR achieves production of 36,550bpd (25,000bpd + (38,500bpd x 30%)) for FY/CY24 @$82, then revenue should equate to ~US$1,094m and NOT the 818.2m they show.

It would seem their figures do not take Who Dat sales revenue into account. Or are they anticipating the Oil price to be US$61?

Their future years P/E and EV/EBITDA appear to be out of whack.


Also, while Bauna will achieve lower production until the Well is fixed in Q4CY24, I would expect its restart to largely compensate for the 15% production decline in the FY/CY25. Revenue will reflect Bauna natural decline moreso in FY/CY26.

Of course, who knows what KAR production upgrades might occur by CY/FY26?


The Neon CapEx estimate of US$1B is striking. I think everyone here would prefer we go it alone ... but that would put any chance of a dividend a loooooong way off.

FPSO is the query here, especially with Bauna production having potential to stretch to 2038.