Well, whoever it was who recently asked if we are at the bottom yet, you have your answer. The possible tinfoil lining is that we might see the bottom - and it could be an ugly-old-fat-dude kind of bottom - come and go within the next 3 months. Actually, let's say 4 months, or 5 months. We'll see. Nobody liked seeing the word 'typically' in there. I honestly hope a bunch of you have some things in life to distract you across this period because it's been pretty dire on here lately.
Let's try to zoom out and make a few observations. Personally, I don't think the company will go out of business, I never have thought that. The more real fear is dilution into oblivion for all existing shareholders (aside from the directors who can allocate increasing amounts to themselves each year at will) by insufficient raises at ever-decreasing prices. They say if you are going to panic, panic early. One of the worst characteristics of PAR management is that they take too little action, too late. Nor, however, do I think everything will just be fine because of "the science". I've been surprised at how many intelligent people apparently think that a business comes down to anything else but money. And equally surprised to see that people ignore the disconnect between a company in which they own stock, and their holding itself. Never forget that the company could ultimately become a success, and you could still lose a lot of, possibly nearly all of, your money. As a stock forum, we should be discussing what's best for shareholders' investments. Shareholders are not company fiduciaries for goodness sakes!! Listening to some prominent posters on here you'd think we all were.
There has been some ridicule by the hopium huffers toward the bitter brigade (I still have my membership card for both clubs in a drawer somewhere) that - despite promises of being deal-ready going back over 5 years - no partner would jump before we have total confirmation on 2x2 for Phase III. Well, i'm interested to hear from Huts and the like on this now? You were dishing this 'truth' out to people, so let's hear from you? It's late April, 3 months* (*typically) takes us up to late July. They've committed to a partnership deal, and any associated non-dilutive income, by end of June. So, what gives way now? By your very own reckoning, the need for 2x2 is core to a partnership, so is that partnership promise redundant now in your mind? Does therefore todays timeline make a mid-2024 CR an inevitability in your opinion? I'm afraid we may have to prepare for the market thinking exactly that - hence the opening sentences of this post.
Let's say that was the case. Is there merit to pulling that CR forward now? I know we cannot agree on what funds are required to complete Phase III. It'd be a bold man to suggest that timelines will be kept from now on, so even though $100m has been ridiculed, to me it's as good a number as any. Do the board, plus SW et al, start considering the merits of a major CR sooner? Do it now before tax-loss selling, dwindling cash position, and no news on either 2x2 or partnership, batters us into another 50% drop in share price? What can they even raise now anyway? Whatever the figure, surely it puts us in a better position than we are now. With this next few months of desert-crossing to face, maybe it's time to fill the water gourds. It's hard to forget that this is a management team who only ever gives us the best, most positive, and sometimes even a complete fantasy version of where we stand. It could take longer. It is also a management team who have not been able to, despite 5 years of hyping it - sign any partnership deal, for any indication, for any amount of cash, to anyone at all. Are they suddenly going to do it now, in 2 months, while we are in this position? Think.
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