I’m going to have to look through this again in more detail.
Things I noted on first look through:
- pretty clear to see synergy by getting rid of 3PL and switching to T4U DCs on top of the redundancies already made
- currency tailwinds look like they could add +0.5m to EBITDA in FY21 based on the disclosed currency risk in the AR
- the absence of a working capital adjustment for the T4U seems to have added 4-5m of equity to the combined business.
- no detail on revised interest facilities- but already having a weighted average interest rate of 0.9% from 1.3% the prior year
- many things achieved in FY20 that will only play out in FY21
- a further nearly 1m EBITDA upgrade from June 30 (how is that even possible!?).
Presumably a further 1m will be received from Jobkeeper in FY21 for NTD ex T4U and there may be some eligibility in the T4U businesses that we don’t know the detail around.
So ex T4U on a bottom of the cycle EV/EBITDA ratio of about 4-5x at current price. Await to see the results of the T4U review in September with great interest.
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I’m going to have to look through this again in more...
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