The added comments (circled in colour) are of course just my...

  1. 819 Posts.
    The added comments (circled in colour) are of course just my opinion. The Iranian leadership (the Revolutionary Guard and Khamenei) function as effective autocrats as long as Iran is a closed system. As soon as they drop the anti-Americanism and hijab enforcement, the Iranian theocracy ( Revolutionary Guard self interest) will be a distant bit of history. Hijab conveniently separates the pious from the promiscuous Americans (and Westerners), and the anti-American rhetoric keeps out the tourists and the competing superficially more attractive lifestyles Westerners appear to lead. The nuclear problem requires trust building to solve it, seeing as the Iranians place so much pride in achieving 1950s enrichment technology, and the Americans (and the Brits?) aren't going to trust them until we have a normal relationship with them (no anti-western rhetoric?). All paths lead inexorably to the end of the regime unless they give up the idea of nuclear energy: Iran is the least safe place for nuclear power stations (earthquakes). Iran does not need nuclear energy with the second largest gas reserves in the world and you do not build an impregnable underground enrichment facility unless you fear your lies about the reasons for the "civilian nuclear energy project" will not be believed. I agree it is unfair Israel doesn't even obey the NPT and I understand Iranian anger about that.
    The length of time the status quo has lasted in Iran is irrelevant: they've never had their backs to the wall like now. Jordinson is utterly wreckless, IMO, giving away Mehdiabad. I am not surprised Middle Eastern investors are queueing up to buy in at 30 cents. There was a protest in Sanandaj on 23rd May I think (not significant, but it shows what might happen once Iranians lose their fear of the regime). The Moscow nuclear talks will likely fail IMO. The difference between 2 successful Arab uprisings and Iran is that Tunisia and Egypt were limited in how much force they could use (they were allies of the West). Iran and Syria are different, so they can be brutal. However, the nuclear problem will have to be solved, so they can go for the bomb and have regime change foisted on them or they can build trust and continue with it and have the regime collapse from within.



 
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