As I understand it, the ordinary Arab on the street (from questionnaires) fears USA more than Iran (it is perhaps different for the rulers of these Gulf states though, although Oman acted as an intermediary for freeing the 3 American hikers arrested for spying in Iran. Oman gets on quite well with Iran, so I am not surprised now in hindsight we have an Omani investor. I am thinking of writing to Dr Badawi as I am sure he understands the politics of everything in Iran much better than the rest of our Board. The UAE has a dispute with Iran over three islands, but Iran has to get all its imports of Western goods now by using unskilled Iranians going in boats with loads of cash to buy everything in the Gulf States.
You can hear Shibley Telhami talking in the Sandford Elberg lecture at Berkeley, UCLA. I don't like the Israeli speaker (Avner Cohen), but even he says the status quo in Iran will not last much longer (he is very smart but I don't like him). Interestingly he talks about cyberwarfare (before all this stuff blew up about the latest successor to Stuxnet) and about "semi military" options (naval blockade?). Karim Sadjadpour speaks in the middle and is well worth listening to. He suggests Khamenei could never be a successful autocrat if Iran were friendly with USA, and of course the USA will always be suspicious if Iran doesn't adopt a normal relationship with it like say Japan (Japan is one screw-turn away from having a nuclear bomb and they don't have to have the same additional intrusive inspection requirements that we are trying to impose on Iran - presumably because we trust them completely).
The Omanis probably don't have any special gift to resolve the Mehdiabad issue, but they are comfortable investing in Iran for sure in the same way I am. Persian is an Indo-european language and has no relationship to Arabic other than Persian has absorbed huge numbers of Arabic words into and apart from Persian using the same alphabet except Persian has some extra letters and of course there are some small differences (Persian and Arabic "yeh" differ by two dots)
I am quite sure, especially after the way things are going in Syria (Australia has even booted out a Syrian diplomat), that things are set to reach a climax in Iran soon (9 months max and that the whole of the Middle East will be a very different place next year). Mehdiabad value will just out as a result of these changes that are now unstoppable, IMO.
The links below are what our directors should be watching (only for real Iran nutcases, but the speakers are all experts on Iran).
Iranian Crisis: Is War Inevitable? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw34g3zV0R4
Sandford Elberg Q&A at end of lecture Iranian Crisis: Is War Inevitable? (Panel Discussion) 35 mins long. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPCPgQhO8rs&feature=relmfu
BBC report on the Moral Police enforcing Hijab. It is funny the girl is dressed so sexily and yet carries a "Down with USA" placard (although in Persian it actually says "Marg bar Amrika" = Death to America) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17902222
Sanandaj labour day protest (not significant but it shows not all is well in Iran)
Other speakers to search on on Youtube are Dr Abbas Milani (he was "strategically optimistic about democracy coming to Iran but tactically pessimistic" last year. By now, with events moving the way they are in Syria, he might be more optimistic tactically?
http://vimeo.com/23728739 "Strategically optimistic but tactically pessimistic" UCLA May 2011.
Barbara Slavin describes negotiating with Iran as like trying to eat soup with a fork. (Plenty of interviews with her on Youtube?)
Christianne Amanpour (CNN) is of Persian extraction (Iranian father but English mother?) and is married to a former bloke from the White house (Rubin?) so her interviews are interesting although she is too sympathetic to some of her Iranian interviewees e.g. Dr. Mousavian who describes the West's offer of aircraft spare parts for abstaining from 20% enrichment as peanuts for diamonds.
Many people seem to think we will have to allow Iran's right under the NPT to enrich uranium to 3.5% (I think that is okay if they agree to unhindered inspections). One problem is the quantity of 20% enriched uranium is far greater than they need for making isotopes for medical purposes, but they are unlikely to agree to ship that out. Also they still refuse access to Parchin.
Anyway in short, our directors are mad to give away Mehdiabad now. There is a lot of change coming in the Middle East soon.
Finally (fairly boring except for the comments of Peter Jenkins, a former IAEA ambassador from the UK): time spent on Sandpiper is more important so this is only for real Iran nutcases:
23/05/2012 MORE:programme information (43 minutes) Available since last Wednesday. Nick Robinson examines how decisions are reached behind closed doors in Westminster. How war decision could be reached Click the "listen now" button on this page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006rclx
Anyway I hope all this helps to figure out what the chances are of value being outed in Mehdiabad, if our directors don't blow it all in exchange for a complete dud like Wonarah (dud now, but not in 2050). Mehdiabad dud now but not maybe next year.
UCL Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)