My 2 cents worth:
It never going to happen. The position that Labour find themselves in is as a direct result of putting forward, arguing strongly for and then U-turning on their flagship green policy of borrowing £28 billion a year for now and forever more. It will go down as one of the dumbest policy ideas ever, simply because it had more holes in it than a sieve and the govt just kept attacking it.
The result now is, of course, that they had to save face with another ill thought out policy. This is policy on the fly.
We, as shareholders, meanwhile, are held hostage to the fact that the industry is strongly lobbying Labour to clarify their current policy in order to get some certainty, and although I'm sure that will be forthcoming, its a matter of when.
One thing that is working in our favour is that the uncertainty is affecting real decisions being made now about developments in 1-5 years time. The longer Labour dither, the more damage it does to a critical industry, so the clock is ticking loudly in their ears. Another thing in our favour is that Gary Smith, head of UK's largest union, (and Labour's biggest funder) is rabid over this.
Lastly, it's worth remembering that the Labour party isn't a unified collective. There is still a strong far Left Corbyn element that hates Starmer, and then there is the rest, who quietly believe the far left are loonies. If Starmer is to win a majority that is big enough to drown out the far left, he needs to ensure he has Scotland on his side. There are potentially 20 seats to take off SNP. But right now, Scotland stands to lose the most from this policy in terms of jobs and the continuation of the industry that services the energy sector. They will not deliver those seat to him under this policy.
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