I suspect that the balance of the 33rd round of the new licenses...

I suspect that the balance of the 33rd round of the new licenses will be issued shortly. I will be interested to see what these leases hold, should they win them. IF they are similar to P2607, in that they have previously produced, then they will have a 2C resources that COULD be upgraded to a 2P reserve without drilling. IF, then these leases are able to tie back into the proposed infrastructure for Phase 1 of their existing project, then it is conceivable that this could spur a positive reaction from RR, bearing in mind that, as far as I know, RR dont have any exposure to these new leases.

I think @Byron, the simple fact of the matter is that there are a lot of moving pieces in this puzzle, and all we really know at the moment is that the project has been deferred. The market, in typical fashion, has taken a view that this wont get up at all, and the selling we are seeing at the moment is almost certainly from those who would have probably sold at 3/4c + anyway, but now just want out.

I take a more pragmatic view of the situation. Everything that we are hearing is that Gas is going to be required for many years to come and that domestic production is preferable to imports. The confusion in the industry though, comes from a lack of clarity over the tax treatment of developments and the uncertainty this leads to in funding.

This lack of certainty cant last for too long, unless the UK government is willing to gamble on new and relatively untried technology, with failure to deliver within a preset time frame a very real possibility. This is exactly why the current govt has mandated new gas fired power stations and interestingly, the Labour party have said they would support the move.

BUT, here's the conundrum: IF Labour make new North Sea gas developments un-investable going forward, then by the time those new power stations are built, North Sea gas production will have fallen by 50% with no new developments to replace end of life production. In effect, the hedge to build new gas stations to avoid possible black outs by 2030 will have been for nothing.

Lets not forget either, that the push to replace gas heating with alternatives continues to be pushed back, so, even with the best wills in the world to decarbonize the economy, gas will still be needed for heating, baseload supply for heavy industry, fertilizer production and back up for the energy grid.

Electricity demand is expected to double to 600TWH by 2050. This looks and feels like a minimum demand forecast tbh. Net zero targets are to reduce the energy grids use of gas by 50% over the same time, but as simple maths proves, that means that overall gas demand remains stable at approx 120TWH. All this BEFORE  the use of gas for all other non grid purposes.

I remain confident that what the market is saying about HHR right now is far too negative, but without any clarity on timing, I can understand why sellers are selling.