MSB 2.08% 94.0¢ mesoblast limited

Ann: Ulcerative Colitis & Crohns Results Presented at ECCO, page-176

  1. 3,950 Posts.
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    Its been some time , but these results are gold.

    Given remestemcel approval , how much of the valuation of MSB would be contributed to this indication? We are looking at a indication that would generate peak sales well north of $10 billion US. This is just one of how many indications?

    Yes a P3 would need to be compleated however the trial would be short and very fast. 3 months and data would be ready for a lable exstention . 2024

    Many big pharma would be keen however for Takeda Remestemcel-L is in a different category. "Must have"
    There bigest seller is for this indication. They have a competitive MAB drug showing significant results of 25% CR , twice as good . Remestemcel looks like close to 100%. The current best seller markets for around $26000 per patient per year.
    Remestemcel-L Better cheaper and at worp speed.

    At the current SP of .95 we can be confident that the market has discounted the SP for the probability of FDA rejection. I am a optimist, 50/50 chance in my opiion.
    I am not the market maker, my opinion means little to the market. Could the market only be giving MSB a 5% probability of FDA approval?

    So if the market is applying a 95% discount and the FDA removes that discount by approving the GVHD indication or giveing a clear indication that the potancy assays are approvable would a SP of $20 be considerd fare value?

    Good luck.



 
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