"I think $60m ARR is by CY26 not FY26. Their cash balance was a...

"I think $60m ARR is by CY26 not FY26. Their cash balance was a big surprise today. I’ve now ruled out any cap raise or bank facility in the near-term."

Mmmm. As always, the devil is in the detail, so I'll reserve judgment on that only after I've had a look at the audited financial statements in a few weeks to see what's behind the seemingly strong cash flow in the JH2024.

My best guess is that it reflects, at least in part, a reversal of the significant increase in working capital that occurred during DH2023 (WC went from $0.33m @ 30 June 2023 to $2.91m @ 31 Dec 2023, a significant $2.6m jump... which went a long way to explaining why the Cash position declined by $3.7m during the first half).

So, while the cash balance being maintained over the past 6 months is obviously not a bad thing, I very much doubt the company is now no longer in capital consumption mode.

But while previously I had the odds of another capital raising at maybe 30% or 40% [*], the signs of good cost control (by deduction based on the latest Revenue and EBITDA update, there was no increase in the Operating Expense line in the second-half compared with the first half), now has me thinking that the probability is a lot lower (less than 10%).

[*] noting it would not need to be a very substantial one at all, maybe just $3m or $4m would get them through to comfortably self-sustaining state.

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