Good words, Tremocos!
I can understand your comment regarding the acquisition, and, I totally agree with debt financing (Company has 0 debt).
However, my gut felling is that the FCF from UG would fund South Down - SD CAPEX is much bigger, I believe. If they have a cash flow machine from UG, SD would be an interesting play for the long-long term (next step). Maybe once they hit again 30-40% of SD CAPEX in cash, they will start to consider really taking it ahead. I am prone to believe that some level of project financing would be required to SD, though, maybe backed by a take-or-pay agreement from a supplier (Chinese?).
I also agree ref dividends - 46M per year looks feasible, but my concern is while UG is under development we are 100% exposed to IO prices and I don't dare to project/forecast a commodity price. Things might get tight if IO drops, and I can anticipate management team saying we will prioritize growth, which is totally understandable.
One thing that is good to note here is the quality of the Iron Ore produced by GRR. As far as I understood, it draws attention for "green steel" producers, and they might even getter cheaper financing on "green financing/bonds".
My take is moderate buy in long term ; short-medium: hold.
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36.5¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $422.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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11 | 312080 | 36.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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13 | 270636 | 0.360 |
8 | 130605 | 0.355 |
13 | 240730 | 0.350 |
2 | 28988 | 0.345 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.370 | 35000 | 1 |
0.375 | 117000 | 4 |
0.380 | 273408 | 4 |
0.385 | 54925 | 3 |
0.390 | 178529 | 3 |
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Change
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