I agree cnc venture with all your comments above. Do you go for...

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Bull#1

195 Posts.

07/09/16

21:12

Post #: 19005543
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Originally posted by cncventure ↑

Obviously any negative news that is unknown to the market will push the share price lower (depending on its severity)

That said, the news flow over the lat 6 months has mostly been negative and the share price has been smashed because of it.

The real question is:

Has most of the bad news come out? or at least the worst of the bad news?

And has the share price over reacted to the bad news to date?

Looking at the price action of Mr Market over the last 2 months it looks to me like he thinks EXG at ~5c offers compelling risk adjusted return (ie we've seen around 35m shares traded around this level).

So technically speaking the current share price looks supported.

On a fundamental view I'd argue that EXG is presently priced for "continued bad news"...

So for the share price to get markedly lower from here I suspect we'd need some pretty darn bad news and NO positive developments (ie higher gold price, positive drill results, etc).

Personally I don't trust Mr Market, since February the gold price is up slightly yet he's dropped the value of the company by 67% for only a 35% share dilution (which also came with an injection of fresh capital).

So it would seem that Mr Market (as usual) is being a bit schizophrenic and that without more bad news in the next couple of month his "mood" will likely return from "negative" to "neutral"...

And if the Dec quarter is a healthy cash flow positive his mood will shift to one of "extremely positive", if the Dec result is as good as guided he may even end up being more positive than he's ever been...

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I agree cnc venture with all your comments above. Do you go for evn ncm and rrl up 300 % + from the lows hoping they will double from here? That puts the likes of evn at around 5 dollars and Newcrest at around 45 dollars... a stretch from here you would think.

Exg is a good punt from these levels. New management/ or a takeover bid could see it at 10 cents. I certainly see more upside potential in Exg ....

EXG Price at posting: 5.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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